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Wednesday, November 7, 2018

Trump's Worst Nightmare Just Came True

I've spent almost 24 hours trying to get my thoughts regarding the 2018 midterms into something that isn't screaming possum memes. I'm not sure how successful I'm about to be, either, but here we go.

Democrats did as well as could be reasonably expected last night. Taking the Senate was always an impossibly tall order. Too many Democrats up for reelection, many in vulnerable red state seats. It was all but assured Republicans would keep control of the chamber, and highly likely they would pick up a seat or two (which they've done).

But it's a pyrrhic victory. The Democrats not only flipped the House, but also 7 governorships and 200+ state legislature seats. Despite gerrymandering and voter suppression.

So what does it mean now that we control the House? Let's break it down:
  • Any further attempts to repeal the ACA are dead in the water. That shit will never make it past a blue House.
  • Indeed, any shitty, dangerous legislation coming from the GOP Senate will not survive a blue House vote.
  • Democrats now control all House committees. Of particular relevance right now? Judiciary, Oversight, and Finance.
  • House Democrats now have subpoena power to request whatever documents they need, and the ability to release whatever information they wish to the public as long as it's not classified.
What this means for Trump is that his life is going to be a living fucking Hell for the next 2 years. Everything he's done will be under the microscope, because these will not be partisan shitshow window-dressing investigations, but actual ones. And his criminality will become public record.

For a narcissist like Trump? This is the worst thing that could possibly happen to him. Being held accountable for his shit, and being so publicly.

And he's already starting to panic. Not even half a day after the midterms, and Attorney General Jeff Sessions has resigned. And Trump is looking to replace him with someone a lot friendlier. Unfortunately for Trump, this is going to work about as well as it did for Nixon, because now that we have an actual check on his power, you better believe House Democrats are going to investigate the holy fuck out of this. They're already planning to bring in Mueller for public hearings should Trump find an Attorney General willing to fire him.

I don't want to make any predictions for the future of the Trump Administration. But I will say that there is no scenario that bodes well for him. In 2020, there will be twice as many Republican senators up for reelection as Democrats. Considering how close the races were last night even in GOP strongholds, none of those seats are truly safe. And depending on what House committee investigations uncover? They may be even less so. Particularly if Trump's popularity drops below 30% (which is not at all unlikely).

If Trump becomes more of a liability than an asset? Republicans will have no choice but to turn on him, like they did with Nixon. The question is whether Trump will resign, or have to be impeached, convicted, and dragged kicking and screaming across the White House lawn.

For now? Winter is here.

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